BOX OFFICE PREVIEW SEPTEMBER 30 2016

THIS WEEK’S TOP PICK

MISS PEREGRINE’S HOME FOR PECULIAR CHILDREN

If there has been one certainty in September 2016’s box office it’s that a film’s fate is decidedly uncertain. This trend applies double here as Tim Burton is something of a box office mercurial who is able to wrangle a monster hit with one film (Alice in Wonderland) and then flop with the next (Dark Shadows).  Popular source material may help him here but the film itself is too dark for family entertainment and is perhaps too odd for teenagers, so it will be looking to pick up misfits from several demographics to top the box office this weekend.

That’s not to say Miss Peregrine’s isn’t capable of doing just that since the film is loaded with Burton’s trademark macabre imagery which could well bring his long-suffering fanbase back into theaters en masse. Likewise, reviews are just on the right side of positive (62% on rottentomatoes.com) and 20th Century Fox has been pushing its publicity hard over the last few months (the Fox smells a franchise, methinks) so expect an opening take somewhere between $30-35 million.

BOX OFFICE PREDICTIONS

This week’s other big draw is Lionsgate’s oil rig disaster movie Deepwater Horizon. The film sees a reteaming of 2013’s Lone Survivor‘s Mark Wahlberg and director Peter Berg once again dealing with a real-life subject matter in this dramatization of he Deepwater Horizon rig explosion back in 2010. This one isn’t to be underestimated: reviews are solid (80% on RT) and Peter Berg has been carving out a real niche in serious, machismo-fueled cinema which commands a considerable audience (Lone Survivor took over $150 million during its run). The $156 million production budget shows a lot of confidence in the film from the studio and it’s a real dark horse for the number one spot this weekend. Projections are somewhere around $25 million for its first 3 days but that is a very conservative estimate and Deepwater Horizon could easily go $5-10 million north of that figure.

This week’s other new wide release is Relativity’s Masterminds, a comedy flick starring Zach Galifianakis and Kristen Wiig. The film first trailered in January last year and was supposed to see an August release that year too which suggests it will not be causing too many queues at ticket desks. If manages to break into the top 5, Relativity will probably be pleased but a projected $7 million take probably won’t get it there.

Indeed, the rest of the top 5 is likely to consist of holdovers in the shape of The Magnificent Seven, Storks, and Sully respectively. Sony’s western remake is looking at a 50% shave off its $35 million opening to finish comfortably in third place. Warner’s Sully is still reaping the rewards of a glowing reputation to take a lesser drop off of 37% and should take just south of $10 million. However, both will face serious competition from Deepwater Horizon and their fates will likely be determined by how well Lionsgate’s new release does.