BOX OFFICE PREVIEW NOVEMBER 11 2016

THIS WEEK’S TOP PICK

ARRIVAL

The box office resurgence looks set to continue this week thanks not only to the election finally coming to a close and two strong holdovers from last week but also because of a much-anticipated ‘arrival’ in theaters today. While Paramount’s acclaimed sci-fi gem probably won’t be troubling the top spot come Monday due to a slightly limited wide release at just over 2,000 theaters, it’s currently garnering rave reviews (94% on rottentomatoes.com) and it earned itself the first ‘A’ grade we’ve awarded to a film (read full review here).

It’s safe to say that Arrival is obviously a must-see for sci-fi fans and it is very likely to be appearing high on FOTY lists soon. It should also hold a lot of appeal for those who can’t tell the difference between a lightsaber and a phaser since the film has a strong emotional trait that has been alluded to frequently in its promotional materials. None of this guarantees a strong opening performance, though, as Arrival is an unknown property and as such is devoid of core support initially; however, recent history is on its side.

Smart sci-fi tends to do well at this time of year since the last 3 years have seen the likes of Gravity, Interstellar, and The Martian all opening at around the $50 million mark during the Fall season. Arrival will have to produce some astonishing per-screen averages to even come close to that amount but somewhere between $25-$30 million is within its grasp and it’s very likely to go on a strong run for the rest of the month as (presumably) positive word-of-mouth spreads.

BOX OFFICE PREDICTIONS

With Arrival‘s somewhat timid wide release, last week’s Doctor Strange will be sitting comfortably at number one once again this weekend. Single character Marvel films have tended to track at around a 50% drop off going into their second week, and there’s no reason why their latest won’t follow suit especially with its largely positive reviews. All that’s left to speculate on is how much Strange will be taking this weekend, with the smart money being on somewhere just north of $40 million.

Looking now at second place and it will be very, very close between Arrival and Dreamwork’s Trolls. After the cutesy animation caused quite a stir with an unexpected bountiful opening of $46 million, it will be expecting a strong second weekend due to animated blockbusters having a longer half-life than their live-action equivalents. A drop off of 35% would be typical for this kind of fare and would put Trolls squarely on $30 million. It also has the widest release across the US currently and Arrival is going to have to do sensational business with nearly half as many theaters to top it. With that mind, it’s probably the safest bet to place Trolls in second with Arrival leading a gallant third place behind it.

Filling out the rest of the Top 5 will most likely be the new holiday release Almost Christmas (yes, already) to take fourth place with around $12 million. Universal’s Christmas movie starring Danny Glover as the father of a dysfunctional family trying to get along during the holidays was never going to cause any box office fissures and its 41% score on rottentomatoes.com suggests this is only for people looking for some very early Christmas content. And finally, Summit Entertainment’s Hacksaw Ridge should finish in fifth position while taking a small drop off of just 30% as it’s likely to continue to prove popular with more mature audiences thanks to its reputedly authentic take on World War II.

Overall, the box office should dip by about 28% compared to last week’s bumper haul of $191 million which is still very healthy and it should receive another surge next weekend with Warner’s Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them as November goes from strength to strength in terms of revenue and -hopefully- quality.