BOX PREVIEW SEPTEMBER, 9 2016

This Week’s Top Pick

As this year’s fall movie season finally kicks in, it does so in slightly better health than last year with domestic grosses up nearly 5% year-on-year; a trend that looks set to continue with the release of Clint Eastwood’s Sully. Eastwood’s first film since the massively successful and divisive American Sniper and starring Tom Hanks as the titular real-life pilot, who famously and coolly performed a miraculous emergency landing of a passenger jet in the Hudson river, Sully should be a big hit with movie-goers who have been starved of a big drama picture for awhile now.

Early word is strong as it sits at 82% on RT.com and it received a standing ovation at the Telluride festival, so this has to be considered an early Oscar contender just before we enter Awards season proper. Tom Hanks’ presence, the subject matter, and Eastwood’s hand on the rudder pretty much guarantees at least a $30 million opening but don’t be surprised to see it go between $5-10 million north of that conservative estimate.

Box Office Predictions

With Sully certain to push Don’t Breathe off the top spot after the horror hit’s impressive run, the rest of the top 10 is somewhat of a dog fight between summer’s holdovers and minor new releases. Screen Gem’s latest thriller When The Bough Breaks; Lionsgate’s tardy animated effort The Wild Life; and Relativity’s delayed horror The Disappointment Room will all be hoping to figure somewhere in there.

When The Bough Breaks could be in line for a number 2 spot with an estimated take somewhere in the region $20 million, though its lack of press screenings doesn’t necessarily bode well for that. The Wild Life has been on international release since February now and is a little late to capture the family market with the kids going back to school so it would certainly be pleased with a top 5 finish and a $5 million take. The Disappointment Room‘s title could well be a gift to capricious critics as it finished production back in 2014 and a lack of press screenings doesn’t exactly scream a hidden gem is sneaking into theaters this week; the horror starring Kate Beckinsale will be doing well if can crack the top 10 and push above $2 million.

As for the holdovers, Don’t Breathe is likely to drop down to third with an expected 50% drop off but Screen Gem’s will be thrilled with its performance so far having taken over $40 million already. Suicide Squad should be right behind it in fourth but it will be doing well to take over $6 million at this stage since its poor reception after its record-breaking opening has ensured a consistently high level of diminishing returns over the last 4 weeks.